Fueling Crisis

In government, there are generally two ways for issues to find their way onto the agenda. They are either placed there by a politician looking to solve a problem or they are dropped on the table by general circumstances.

If some legislator gets a bright idea while driving to the state Capitol one morning, it can take years for that idea to become policy.

First, he has to get the attention of his colleagues, who are most often absorbed in their own issues.

Then he has to find funding, convince the executive branch to go along and at some point secure enough votes to turn his idea into law.

On average, the bright idea approach takes two to four years to yield results.

The government moves much more quickly if an idea presents itself as an organic crisis, one we didn’t see coming, but that obviously requires immediate attention. Because people in government are often under the illusion they are actually in charge, there is always pressure to do something — anything — when a crisis erupts.

Sometimes this is good, but just as often it is bad.

Winter Worries

It’s hard to say if state government can play any role in the coming crisis over the cost of home heating, but it is clear that a huge problem is about to be dropped on the table, organically, as most in state government ponder more mundane problems like the budget deficit.

If the impact of the current price of a gallon of gasoline is any indication, Connecticut and New England are about to face a major problem this winter with fuel costs.

As the cost of heating oil breaks $4.50 a gallon, families this winter might be paying twice what they paid last year to stay warm. When combined with the monthly cost of gasoline for the average two-car family, the resulting impact on a family budget will be more than a crisis — more like a catastrophe.

While Democrats and the governor conspired this year to put off tough decisions on the state budget until after the election, they may not be as successful in hiding this even bigger threat to the economic health of the average Connecticut family.

Fuel suppliers are already in negotiations with their customers to lock in prices for the upcoming season, and consumers are shocked by the numbers they are hearing. They may well begin looking for solutions during the upcoming election season, which could spell trouble for incumbents. If the rising cost of oil and gas add to the overall sense that the country and the state are headed down the wrong track, both parties could face voter retribution.

There is no quick solution to this problem and certainly none within the power of the governor or state legislature. A long-term combination of policies has come together to create this crisis and it cannot be solved overnight through investigations of price gouging or the formation of a task force.

Band-Aid Fixes

The most likely approach that may be offered to provide some relief is more government-subsidized aid to families who need help paying their bills. But this is not a long-term solution. Instead, it will make matters worse because higher taxes will be necessary to cover unexpected government spending. Subsidies only delay or transfer the pain.

Many expect next year’s state budget debate to be among the most difficult in memory because of a built-in structural deficit. What no one can predict is how skyrocketing energy prices are going to compound that problem and make 2009 a terrible year for taxpayers.

Dean Pagani is a former gubernatorial advisor. He is V.P. of Public Affairs for Cashman and Katz Integrated Communications in Glastonbury.